By Dr. Ved Pratap Vaidik
Can America get out of the quagmire of Afghanistan? (Or to use a reference from Mahabharat, the famous Indian Epic, how can the American Abhimanyu can get out of the Afghanistan Chakravyuh (maze) that he is trapped in?)
In reply to this cardinal question I have devised a five-point strategy.
Point One: President Obama should not send a single new American soldier to Afghanistan and he must announce a definite date for the withdrawal of the American army from Afghanistan. Not a single American soldier should continue to stay in Afghanistan after that date.
In my opinion this deadline should be December 31, 2010.Of course, this withdrawal would include all foreign soldiers belonging to ISAF.
This announcement will make a magic impact on the public opinion of the US.
It will, then, be Obama’s second victory in one year. All the Democrats and even Republicans will rally around him. In far away Afghanistan there will rise a high tide of joy and relief because the people of Afghanistan have an age-long hatred for the presence of the foreign soldiers on their motherland. During the last 150 years they have taught a bitter lesson to the British Army thrice and to the Soviet Army in the recent past. Initially, the people of Afghanistan had welcomed the Western Armies but now they feel that the resurgence of Taliban has taken place basically due to the presence of foreign armies (ISAF).
Point Two: If all the foreign armies leave Afghanistan within a year the question comes up that, ‘would the Hamid Karzai Government survive’? Will anarchy not spread in Afghanistan? There is no doubt about it. So what are the options?
At least a National Army of half a million Afghan soldiers and a Police Force should be raised immediately.
When Zahir Shah was over thrown 36 years ago, the Army and Police consisted of about 200,000 soldiers. Now the population has grown two-fold and since the last 30 years Afghanistan is passing through a war-like situation. If an Army of half a million soldiers becomes a reality then you won’t find any unemployed youth on the streets of Kandahar or Kabul. It is mostly the unemployed youth that is being trapped by the Taliban, smugglers and the mafia. If they find a place in the Army, the human source of the Taliban and smugglers will totally dry up. No youth will be left to be drafted by the Al-Qaeda and Taliban.
The expenses incurred on inducting five million youth to the Army will be less than the expenses of maintaining just five thousand soldiers of any Western Army in Afghanistan. If the US and other NATO countries take up the maintenance of the Afghan National Army for the next five years, they will still save billions of dollars and hundreds of precious lives. If the ISAF armies leave Afghanistan, the Taliban will automatically lose their rationale to operate.
India can take up the responsibility of training the soldiers and officers in Afghanistan. If we need to immediately step up the fighting strength of the present army set up, instead of sending new soldiers from the western countries, the friendly Asian and African countries can be approached to do the needful.
Point Three: What makes the Taliban and Al-Qaeda thrive is the ill-gotten wealth of opium. Afghanistan is the world’s largest producer of opium. You will be shocked to know if I recount the name of the people who are involved in the growing and smuggling of opium. The funds generated from opium far exceed the national budget. The opium money is the mother of corruption in Afghanistan. A total ban may be imposed on the cultivation of opium or it can be put under stringent laws as it is in India. If they clamp down on illegal wealth obtained through opium, the Karzai Government can not only break the back of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda but can also get rid of many rogue politicians.
Point Four: There is no central control or accountability of the billions of dollars that pour into Afghanistan. President Karzai himself had shared with me this fact a few months ago that in Kabul his government has control on only four percent of the total foreign aid that comes into his country. The balance, 96% is allotted to provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT). There teams operate on their own. They have very little say of the Central Afghans Government in their functioning. This gives rise not only to corruption and malpractices but also deals a blow to the image of the Central Government. The people of Afghanistan respect the government which is strong and assertive. Not only the foreign aid but also the overall control over foreign troops and their operations should be in the hands of the Central Government of Afghanistan.
Point Five: The Karzai Government has to put up a determined fight against the violent terrorists but at the same time it should not hesitate to enter into a dialogue with the Taliban.
After all they are also the sons of Mother Afghanistan ( Maadare-Watan). If their ideas are totally absurd why so many young men are out to sacrifice their lives ? I had been talking to Taliban and Al-Queda leaders.
About ten to twelve years ago in Kabul, Kandahar, Peshawar, Islamabad, London, Washington, DC and New York. They are abusive and acrimonious at times but they do also believe in the value of argumentation. They are open to the contrary view. I found them flexible, and helpful too. If it is not so, how the high jacked Indian airplane was released from Kandahar in 1999. The dialogue with the Taliban should be conducted by the Afghans and not the Americans. Assistance of some other knowledgeable persons may be sought.
If this Five-Point strategy is put together and implemented, the US can rescue itself from the quagmire of Afghanistan.
While putting this strategy into action, the policy makers may face several new questions.
While implementing this exit strategy, if the image of the Afghan Government is not built as all-powerful and sovereign body, chances of success would appear to be bleak. To bolster the image of Karzai Government it is absolutely imperative that President Karzai take a drastic and exemplary action against corruption. If need be, he might have to sideline some of his close friends and relatives even if it is meant to placate the public opinion.
Similarly, the deadlock between the President and the Parliament must be broken at its earliest. The Constitution of Afghanistan cannot be replaced now at this juncture, there is a plausible remedy in my view. Why can’t the political leaders be encouraged to set up viable political parties, which can become a bridge between the President and Parliament and also the Government and the ordinary people. How can you imagine a healthy democracy without the political parties?
Dr. V.P. Vaidik, A-19 Press Enclave New Delhi 110 017, (Phone) (0091-11) 2686 7700, 2651 7295 Mob. : (0091)98-9171-1947, e-mail : dr.vaidik@gmail.com
