Asif Ali Zardari Writes About Musharraf

March 17/ 2008, was a momentous day for the people of Pakistan, but a bittersweet day for me.

Sitting in the gallery watching a democratically elected National
Assembly headed by the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and its coalition
partners, I thought of the terrible price paid for this moment of liberty. I thought of the many jailed, beaten, tortured and exiled. I thought of all of those who had their reputations assaulted. I thought of the undermining and dismantling of Pakistani civil society. I thought of the attacks on the independence and autonomy of the judicial system. I thought of the censorship of the press, Emergency rule and military Martial Law.

But of course more than anything else, I thought of my beloved wife,
Shaheed Mohtrama Benazir Bhutto, who sacrificed her life for her
beliefs and her country. This was the day of her triumph, the
vindication of her long battle for the establishment of democracy. For
my country, this was a day of celebration. But for me and our children, this day was also a day of tears. Democracy has come to Pakistan, but at a tragic, high price.
Recently, the two largest political parties in Pakistan agreed to form
a national coalition government that would establish democracy and
bring stability to our country. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP),
which I lead after the assassination of my wife, has joined the
Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Muhammad
Nawaz Sharif, to form a broad-based, democratic, liberal government in
Pakistan — an umbrella of reconciliation and consensus. Syed Yousaf
Raza Gillani, the new Prime Minister and Vice Chairman of the PPP, is
also committed to the development of real civilian democracy in
Pakistan.

In agreeing to form a national coalition government, Mr. Sharif and I
have responded to the mandate given by the people of Pakistan in the
parliamentary elections of 18 February 2008. Pakistan’s people no
longer want to live under the guns of an outlaw criminal dictator.
They want an end to dictatorship, terrorism and violence. They wish to
join the rest of the modern world in the pursuit of peace, progress
and prosperity. They want to restore the supremacy of the people’s
house, the National Assembly, and free it from the sword of Damocles
of a lawless presidency with inflated, unconstitutional, illegal
authority.

Pakistan’s political leaders and people have suffered from the
politics of democracy destruction; we have been battered by a corrupt
tyranny; we have seen civil society taken apart and a free,
independent judiciary destroyed. We have seen international
assistance, secured in the name of fighting terrorism, diverted
towards making Pakistan’s affluent few richer. We have seen progress
on education, health and women’s rights stopped and reversed. But now,
with renewed confidence in democratic parties like the PPP,  PML-N and
ANP, it is time for the rebirth of a democratic, vital and progressive
Pakistan.

Some fear a national coalition government would lack the necessary
strength to tackle Pakistan’s myriad problems. But cooperation between
the country’s biggest political parties, representing an overwhelming
majority of the people, would bring greater stability than one-man
rule. Together, the PPP, PML-N and ANP will be able to build a strong
civil society. That would go a long way to erasing the scars of
militarism and militancy. We will focus on providing education and
employment at the grassroots levels so the country’s professionals can
play an integral role in building a strong national economy.

Under the illegal rule of Tyrant Pervez Musharraf, pro-tyranny
extremists and imperialistic terrorists were allowed to thrive in
Pakistan and Afghanistan. The key to improving security in the country
is not to make citizens in Pakistan’s tribal areas feel like third-
rate citizens kept under lock and key, caught between the threats of
violence from militants and the military. Rather, we must let all of
our citizens, including those in the Federally Administered Tribal
Area (FATA), know they are equal participants in the growth of
Pakistan’s economy and civil society.

Fostering a better level of trust and understanding among the people
in the border areas, and delivering on their key needs, is essential
to enhancing security in the FATA and throughout Pakistan. While
immediate steps must be taken to hunt down identified terrorists, the
long-term solution to extremism and terrorism lies in respecting the
will of the people and in providing them with a means of livelihood at
every level — food, clothing, shelter, jobs, medical care and
education. By talking to and respecting our people, we will be able to
isolate the extremists and terrorists.

Those of us who are now in a position of leadership seek, in my wife’s
words, “a tomorrow better than any of the yesterdays we have ever
known.” We see a Pakistan where all children, regardless of their
socio-economic standing or their gender, are guaranteed compulsory
primary and quality higher education. We see a Pakistani educational
system of qualified teachers, who receive decent salaries, and teach
in modern classrooms with state-of-the-art computers and technology.
We see a Pakistan where political dens that teach hatred are closed,
and educational institutions that focus on science and technology
flourish.

The PPP has a vision to build a Pakistani nation that is one of the
great capital markets of the world; a revitalized nation that will
generate international investment. We look forward to the complete
electrification of all of our villages, the purification of our
nation’s drinking water, the privatization of the public sector, the
expansion of the energy sector, the development of our export
industries, the modernization of our ports and the rebuilding of our
national infrastructure. All of these elements are essential to a new
Pakistan where a democratically elected government, with the mandate
of the people, confronts and marginalizes the forces of dictatorship,
extremism and terrorism wherever they may exist in our nation. In
other words, I see the progressive Pakistan for which my wife lived
and died.

Pakistan’s democracy has not evolved over the past 60 years because
the Army generals believed they should illegally intervene in politics
and unlawfully run the country. The Army’s misperception of itself as
the country’s only viable institution, and its deep-rooted suspicion
of the civilian political process, has prevented democracy from
flourishing. The PPP and its allies will reverse the current Mush
regime’s suppression of civil society, free speech, free press and
free judiciary. We will establish a Press Complaints Commission (PCC)
similar to that of the United Kingdom and stand up for the democratic
rights of citizens to freely establish television and radio stations,
subject to the basic legal framework.

While the tasks ahead are not easy, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)
plans to work in good faith with its fellow democratic parties and our
coalition allies to achieve our goal of building a new, progressive
Pakistan. Everything will not come at once. The reformation of
Pakistan — politically, economically and socially — will be a long
and complex process. But we are determined to begin and we are
determined to succeed.

We did not come this far, we did not sacrifice this much, to fail.

Mr Asif Ali Zardari is the Co-Chairman of the Pakistan Peoples Party
(PPP) based in Karachi, Pakistan. PPP: http://www.ppp.org.pk

Guardian Article: Post Election Scenario

Declan Walsh in Islamabad

• The Guardian,
• Saturday February 23 2008
• http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/23/pakistan

This article appeared in the Guardian on Saturday February 23 2008 on p26 of the International section. It was last updated at 00:06 on February 23 2008.

Pervez Musharraf’s allies received a drubbing in Monday’s elections. Now he faces the prospect of being impeached as president if his rivals can cobble together a two-thirds majority in parliament Photograph: Aamir Qureshi/AFP

In some ways life has changed little for Pakistan’s president, Pervez Musharraf, since Monday’s election. The retired general still trots out for afternoon tennis, aides say, and enjoys a game of bridge a few times a week. In the evenings he pulls on a cigar and, although he can’t admit it, nurses a glass of whisky.

Visitors still call to see him at Army House, the marble-floored Rawalpindi residence of Pakistan’s military chiefs, even though he retired three months ago. “It has been renamed Presidential Lodge,” said spokesman Rashid Qureshi. “The normal routine is functioning.”

But outside clouds are gathering. The spectacular rout of his Pakistan Muslim League (Q) party at the polls has shorn the retired commando of his political base, leaving him isolated and exposed.

“He’s been sulking,” said a senior party official. “He’s retreated into a mental bunker, which is not healthy. He thinks everyone is out to get him and only listens to a small circle. It’s a dangerous mindset to be in at this point in time. He could decide to hit back.”

Musharraf’s bad mood stems from the prospect of Nawaz Sharif, the rotund prime minister from Punjab he ousted in a 1999 coup and banished to Saudi Arabia a year later, returning to power. Sharif, who controls the second biggest party in parliament, the Pakistan Muslim League (N) has vowed to oust Musharraf at the earliest opportunity. “The nation has given its verdict. The sooner he accepts it the better,” said Sharif.

But Musharraf, targeted at least twice by al-Qaida assassins, has a knack for survival. And he has at least one loyal friend left. Shortly after the electoral drubbing George Bush paused on a trip to Africa to pay warm tribute to him. He sounded less enthusiastic about Sharif’s ascent. The message filtered quickly through the lines. In Washington the state department urged the opposition to work with Musharraf. In Islamabad American diplomats engaged in frantic talks with the opposition.

Senior officials from all parties told the Guardian they were trying to broker a deal that would ensure Musharraf stays in power. The PML (Q) official said his party was being pressured by US embassy officials hoping for a coalition between their party with Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s party, now led by her widower, Asif Ali Zardari.

“The Americans want a German-style grand coalition including the PPP,” he said. “They want Musharraf to stick around, even if it’s a diminished Musharraf.”

British officials have been more coy, bristling at suggestions they are following the American lead. But many Pakistanis believe Whitehall is singing from a hymn sheet drawn up in the White House.

“The British are masters at using their language; the Americans are more crude. But in the end, it comes down to the same thing,” said Nadir Chaudhri, a Sharif aide.

The western obsession with Musharraf seems puzzling. Since he resigned as army chief in late November most of Musharraf’s power has drained to his successor, General Ashfaq Kayani. Diplomats unanimously praise the former spychief as a sober and sympathetic commander.

The problem is Sharif, who although not elected to parliament is still the power behind the PML (N). Although he went through a makeover during his exile in Jeddah and London – polishing his English, acquiring a hair transplant and a wardrobe of Saville Row tweed jackets – diplomats fear he cannot, or will not, deliver on their greatest concern: hunting al-Qaida and Taliban militancy.

Critics suspect Sharif of being a closet “fundo”, or fundamentalist. They recall his infamous attempt to crown himself commander of the faithful while prime minister in 1998, and point to his family’s conservative background. His close links with Saudi Arabia, which provided a royal jet and bulletproof Mercedes for his return from exile, have also caused some concern, particularly about possible leakage of nuclear technology.

But supporters and some political rivals say such fears are misplaced. A former Sharif minister said that during a 1998 meeting with Bill Clinton in the White House Sharif signed off on a secret plan to assassinate Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, using a CIA-trained force of crack Pakistani troops. Earlier he permitted an FBI team to capture a terrorism suspect and bundle him into a plane bound for the US.

“The whole idea of Sharif being the odd man out in the war on terror is utter nonsense,” said Chaudhri, his aide. “There’s no one more committed to rooting out extremism than him.”

Still, Bush, whose has given more than $10bn to Pakistan since 2001, is more at home with Musharraf.

“He’s very loyal. It’s almost a tribal thing,” said one aide. To some degree, Musharraf has reciprocated. Yesterday the New York Times reported that the president has allowed the CIA to set up a secret base inside Pakistan from which unmanned Predator aircraft can attack al-Qaida fugitives in the tribal areas. If Musharraf goes, officials worry, so could the permission to strike at will.

But many Pakistanis are angry at what they see as American meddling, even among pro-western parties.

“The US has to understand that the parties now elected to parliament are not stooges of Musharraf. They are genuinely elected people,” said Senator Enver Baig, of Bhutto’s PPP.

On the streets there is a tangible sense that the boundaries of power are blurring and Musharraf’s aura is fading. Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, a cigar-chomping politico who was a Musharraf favourite, was among 19 former ministers to lose their seats in Monday’s election.

A few days later he held a press conference at a five-star hotel, visibly smarting from the loss and threatening to set up his own party.

“Politics is very crude. You have to deal with the situation,” he told the Guardian.

Speculation is rife that other PML (Q) cronies will defect to Sharif’s party – from whence many of them came – in droves.

On Thursday hundreds of lawyers and civil society activists tried to storm the barricades outside the Islamabad house of the imprisoned former chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. Lawyers in suits, ties and gardening gloves ripped back coils of barbed wire, only to be confronted with a phalanx of policemen armed with teargas and water canon. “Go Musharraf, go!” chanted the crowd – a mantra that has haunted the president since his botched attempted to fire Chaudhry last March. Musharraf despises the judge even more than he does Sharif; in a recent interview he described him as “the scum of the earth”.

But unlike previous protests, the police did not baton charge or thrash the protesters – at least not very much – and only a few teargas canisters were fired, which landed half-heartedly in a nearby garden. When the crowd dispersed peacefully, one lawyer shook hands briefly with a policeman in riot gear, who smiled back.

“Things have changed,” said the organiser, Athar Minallah. “Today Musharraf is obviously not in power, and that is the beauty of democracy.”

But Musharraf’s fate also rests on the ability of the fractious opposition to unite. In a country of giant egos and troubled history, that’s no sure thing. A complex game of blackmail and manoeuvre is underway.

On Thursday afternoon government lawyers reinvigorated a corruption case against Zardari, a move seen as a shot over the bow in his government-forming talks with Sharif. But that night the two men appeared in public, looking chummy on a pair of gilt-edged thrones, announced they would “cooperate” to form a government against Musharraf.

Exactly what that means is unclear. Sharif’s party wants to form a provincial government in Punjab but leave the national administration to the PPP, perhaps hoping to win an election outright in one or two years’ time. Zardari wants a genuine coalition.

“We are still in the opening moves of this chess game,” said Ayaz Amir, a newly-elected parliamentarian.

By roping in a few smaller parties the two leaders could cobble the two-thirds majority necessary to impeach Musharraf. The end could come by March 8, the date by which election officials estimate the new parliament will first sit.

Musharraf says he is going nowhere. “His term runs for five years. He knows there’s a vast number of people who appreciate and love him for what he’s done,” said Qureshi, his spokesman. “After all he’s done for this country, he would feel a little disappointed I guess.”

In his self-vaunting autobiography, published last year, Musharraf wrote that “a true leader will always be loved by his people”.

Supporters say if it comes to an impeachment motion, he may not fight to the end. “Frankly I’m not sure if he has the stomach for Custer’s last stand. I don’t see the fire in his belly any more,” said a party official.

A new home, complete with security bunkers, is under construction on the edge of Islamabad. Whether he needs to move in there any time soon should become clearer in the coming weeks.

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Voter Turnout in Karachi

According to Election Commission of Pakistan data more people in Karachi came out to vote in the elections in 2008 than in 2002.  In NA 252, where there were 277,553 registered voters, 117,550 votes, i.e. 42%, were cast, as against 33.27% in 2002, showing an increase of 9.08%. Similarly, in NA 253 from a total of 398,527 registered voters, 156,342 i.e. 39% votes were counted, as against 32.40% in 2002, showing an increase of 6.83%. The largest difference, 9.50%, was seen in NA 256, where 165,160 votes were cast out of the 371,067 registered voters. The same trend was reported from NA 257 in which out of 386,376 registered voters a total of 188,363 i.e. 49% votes were polled as compared to 41.73% in 2002, showing that 7.02% more people cast their votes.

Family Politics Continue

By Mark Sappenfield | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

 

Lahore. Hamza Shahbaz Sharif looks almost wistful as he considers why he decided to run for a parliamentary seat in the elections scheduled for Feb. 18. “You know, in all these third-world countries, the whole family gets dragged into politics,” he says.

As the nephew of Nawaz Sharif and the son of Shahbaz Sharif, former chief minister of Punjab, Pakistan’s most powerful province, he speaks from experience. And his words have a particular resonance in this election campaign.

In a country where politics is a birthright and power is often an inheritance, Pakistan’s three greatest political clans are introducing their next generations. The most famous, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who is 19, was named chairman of Pakistan’s largest political party after his mother, Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated in December. But he is enrolled at Oxford University and cannot run for office for six years.

By contrast, Hamza is the only Sharif with his name on the ballot this February, since both his father and uncle have been banned – a legacy of their feud with President Pervez Musharraf, he says. Meanwhile, Moonis Elahi – whose father is mentioned as Mr. Musharraf’s favored choice for prime minister – is seeking a seat in the Punjab Assembly.

Both are in their early 30s, but are distinct characters – Mr. Sharif modest and earnest in a garishly orange jacket, Mr. Elahi full of purpose and youthful panache in a suit coat and designer loafers.

But together they embody the future of Pakistani politics, both its promise and its problems.

In separate interviews, the two men come across as open, frank, and idealistic – a blend of their Pakistani roots and Western ideals gained from studying abroad. The question for them, as well as Pakistan, is whether they and the new generation they will lead are earnest in their desire to recast the nation’s politics of corruption and divisiveness or whether they will merely be consumed by it.

“People say, ‘This is the way things are done in Pakistan,’ ” says Elahi. “If I can’t [change] that, there’s no point in me staying in politics.”

For Mr. Bhutto Zardari, this election has come too soon. Because of Bilawal’s youth, his father, Asif Zardari, will run the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) for the foreseeable future. In Bhutto Zardari’s public press conference, held in London on his way back to Oxford, he freely admitted that he was not yet ready for politics.

“Although I admit that my experience to date is limited, I intend to learn,” he said. “Unless I can finish my education and develop enough maturity, I recognize that I will never be in a position to have sufficient wisdom to enter the political arena.”

More than 10 years older than Bhutto Zardari, Sharif and Elahi have already gone through that transformation, though in different ways. How they arrived at this moment – becoming the candidates their bloodline always suggested they would be – has deeply influenced what they hope to accomplish in the future.

Elahi: CEO mentality?

For Elahi, it is as obvious as his appearance, which is as precise as a stockbroker’s. Elahi presents himself as the eager, fresh-faced reformer – a graduate from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business seeking to bring a CEO’s mentality to the opaque world of Pakistani politics.

The degree has shaped his political agenda most, he says. When he returned from America to help run his family’s sugar factories, for example, “I saw that everything was done more as a favor than on merit,” he says. “It was shocking to me.… I couldn’t apply a lot of what I had learned.”

He has been a controversial figure at times. Opposition leaders allege that he has used his status to his advantage. They have leveled a wide array of charges against him – from hoarding real estate to helping his father steal billions of rupees from Punjab through a front company.

Elahi has denied the charges, claiming he has done everything possible to avoid the appearance of impropriety, turning down bribes himself and constantly monitoring his staff. Whatever the truth, it is the sort of mudslinging endemic to politics here, says Najam Sethi, editor of the Daily News, a Lahore-based national newspaper.

“There’s always talk, but there’s never any evidence,” he says. “If it wasn’t about him, it would be about some other chap.”

Sharif: need for tolerance

For his part, Sharif has seen firsthand how deep political rivalries go in Pakistan – and how they can change lives. At 19, he was imprisoned for six months, the result of a political feud against his family, he says. Then, seven years later, the rest of his family was exiled by Musharraf, who overthrew Sharif’s uncle in a bloodless coup.

From 2000 until late last year, when his family returned, he was the only representative of the Sharif family in Pakistan. “For five years, I was not allowed to meet my mother … and eight years I spent without my family,” he says. “How can you give eight years back to a person?”

He saw the same things in jail as a teenager, watching mothers and sisters who waited in the heat for hours to see their sons and brothers in prison “but didn’t have the money to bribe someone.”

“There is a great gap between the haves and have-nots,” he says. “These things really touched my heart.”

Though also schooled abroad, receiving a bachelor’s degree in law from the London School of Economics, he presents a less polished image than does Elahi. While Elahi looks the part of politician – clearly excited by the prospect – Sharif’s reticence is evident.

In 2002, he declined to run for a provincial or national seat despite his father’s exhortations. Now, with his younger brother overseeing the family business and his father and uncle again off the ballot, he says his time has come.

Drawing from his own experience, he recites what he thinks Pakistan needs most: First, the restoration of the judges that Musharraf sacked during his emergency rule, and second, the ability to separate politics from personality.

For more than a decade, he notes, his uncle and Benazir Bhutto were bitter enemies. But in the days before her assassination, he adds, “Benazir Bhutto would call my uncle several times a week.”

It was, to him, a glimpse of what Pakistan could be. “There has to be an atmosphere of tolerance – it should not turn into personal animosity,” he says. “In a democracy, you have to tolerate criticism if it will make you wiser.”

PPP’s Alliance with the PML-Q?

http://www.rediff.com///news/2008/feb/20guest.htm

Mohammad Shehzad | February 20, 2008 | 

The 2008 elections were the greatest surprise not for the people of Pakistan, but for President Pervez Musharraf and his party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid.

The PML-Q has suffered a humiliating defeat, which made Pakistanis think that elections were fair. But the fact is, the elections were adequately rigged — both before the election and on the election day. However, the rigging did not help the pro-Musharraf party to win a majority. There are a few reasons as well. The major reason is Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. Her murder made her a martyr. Those who were set to vote for PML-Q either abstained or they exercised their right in favour of the Pakistan People’s Party or the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz. Rigging follows a formula. It is never done in a constituency where the victory or defeat of a certain candidate is obvious. It is done in such constituencies where there is neck-and-neck competition.

The “planned rigging” was done for every pro-Musharraf candidate where the competition was neck-and-neck among candidates. But Pakistan voters upset the establishment’s plan. They proved the assumptions wrong by casting votes in favour of the PML-N or the PPP or the Awami National Party.

For example, the number of voters that were assumed to cast their votes in favour of the PML-Q did not. They cast votes against PML-Q. The rigging formula did not fail 100 per cent. It worked at some place as a result of which Chaudhry Parvez Ellahi could win a seat. Chaudhry Shujaat’s brother was able to win a seat from Gujrat. Aftab Sherpao and Maulana Fazlur Rehman could also win. ?Had there been no polling day rigging, the PML-Q could not have bagged 55 seats.

The most vulnerable person after the elections is President Musharraf. His future is extremely uncertain. Rigging has saved him from impeachment. To impeach him, two-third majority is required — that means 251 seats against him.

But his election as President can be questioned in the Supreme Court. If the government formed by the three parties restores the judiciary then there is a real danger to Musharraf. There is a strong possibility that Musharraf could be declared ineligible to be the President. But there is still a solution. Musharraf can dissolve Parliament using his constitutional power as President to save his skin. The country will have new election. But in this case, a massive movement can emerge against Musharraf that could lead to his dismissal.

But, luck seems to be on Musharraf’s side. Only the PML-N is insisting on the restoration of judiciary. It is not the PPP’s priority. In fact, it is nowhere on its agenda. Asif Ali Zardari has said that his party has suffered due to some judges in the past.

The PML-N cannot form the government alone. Musharraf’s special aide Tariq Aziz has become active. He met Zardari on Tuesday and suggested that Musharraf and the PML-Q will cooperate with him fully if the PPP agrees to form government with the PML-Q and the MQM.

Together they have enough seats to form the government. Although, Zardari has ruled out political cooperation with the PML-Q, saying it was never a political party but in politics no stance is considered final.

Politicians have a track record of changing stances and views. Musharraf does not want to see Nawaz Sharif in power. It is possible only if Sharif yields to Musharraf’s terms and in return the President can allow him to contest in the by-elections. Thus Sharif could at least become the chief minister of Punjab. But so far, this is not acceptable to Sharif.

The establishment is working on bringing the PPP, PML-Q, MQM together. It is quite possible that they form a coalition government leaving PML-N and ANP as opposition parties.?

The Outcome of the Feb 18 Elections

The February 18 national elections in Pakistan may have had one of the lowest turnouts in history but it delighted almost everybody. There is hardly anyone who is not shocked by the extent of the rout of the king’s party that ruled for the past five years against the wishes of the masses but with the blessing of General Musharraf; however, the shock is due to the disbelief that the establishment let the elections to be held in such a fair manner and the intelligence agencies did not interfere with the outcome for a change, and not because anybody is upset with the outcome.

 

Benazir Bhutto’s PPP (Pakistan People’s Party) was all along expected to do well in her home province of Sindh and the PPP’s landslide victory there thus has nothing to do with her assassination. The battery of analysts on the electronic and in the print media were predicting the PPP to also do well in the Province of the Punjab which elects 148 members to the national assembly out of a total of 272; in other words, it’s the 44 million Punjabi voters who decide as to who rules Pakistan.

 

The president of the king’s party, PML (Pakistan Muslim League – Quadi Azam), had angrily reacted to my prediction just last week that Nawaz Sharif’s PML –N would sweep Lahore and said that he would retire from politics in that case. As it turned out, the former premier Nawaz Party did not just win 12 out of the 13 seats in Lahore but swept the whole of the Punjab, routing not just the PML-Q but also the PPP in the process. The best part of the hullabaloo is that almost all the prominent leaders of the Nawaz League who had deserted Nawaz Sharif when General Musharraf toppled his government in October 1999 lost. The legacy of General Zia who destroyed democracy in the country by imposing the most brutal martial law in the country’s history in July 1977 and is responsible for many of the ills presently afflicting the society was hopefully finally buried when his son Ejazul Haq and the billionaire son of the then Director General of ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) who died along with General Zia in the plane crash, both lost from two constituencies each.

 

The people have voted for the centrist parties in all the four provinces and have shunned fundamentalism and extremism. The alliance of religious parties, MMA (Muttahida Majlise Amal), lost miserably in its stronghold of the Frontier Province partly because of the decision of the Jamaati Islami to boycott the elections in protest against the sacking of around 60 superior court judges by Musharraf, and in part due to its poor performance while in government for the past five years in the NWFP and Balochistan provinces.

 

The ANP (Awami National Party) which is led by the Frontier Gandhi’s grand son has performed well in the NWFP and is poised to form a government with the help of PPP and some other parties, including a breakaway faction of the PPP.

 

The major nationalist parties in Balochistan were also boycotting the elections and apparently this boycott benefited the PML-Q as it managed to win a substantial number of seats in the Baloch Provincial Assembly and may even try to form the government which would not have been feasible in the absence of the boycott.

 

The ironical part of this election, which perhaps is the fairest in the country’s history and for which General Musharraf and the establishment should be given credit for organizing, is that it shows the tenacity of ethnic nationalism in the Pakistan Federation. There is not a single party in this election that has performed well throughout the state. The PPP has done wonderfully well in rural Sindh but it lost in urban Sindh against MQM (Muttahda Qaumi Movement), against ANP in the Frontier and the PML-N in the Punjab. The latter was unable to secure any seats in Sindh, and Balochistan, and lost badly in the Frontier. ANP is non-existent in the rest of Pakistan, except in the Pukhtun inhabited areas. Baloch nationalists reign supreme in their province and the murder of their compatriot, Akbar Bugti, has strengthened their resolve to oppose the central authority. This is hardly an omen for a peaceful future but the continuous military’s interference in the democratic process must be blamed for an extreme weakened state of political parties and for fomenting these fissiparous tendencies in the country.

 

The PPP and the PML-N are now in a comfortable position to form a coalition government in the Center, and in the Province of the Punjab. The PPP can easily form the government on its own in Sindh. The issue will now be that how these two arch rivals will be able to stick together in government; and friction over all kinds of subjects, starting with the question of premiership down to allotment of ministries, is possible.

 

Nawaz Sharif will be keen to get rid of President Musharraf which constitutionally is only possible through impeachment; the PML-Q presently has a majority in the Senate and it would not be probable at least in the near future. The PPP does not feel so strongly against the President and may not be interested in rocking the boat over this concern. Similarly, the PML-N has openly been advocating for the restoration of the sacked judges, led by the deposed Chief Justice of the Supreme Court; the PPP even during Benazir’s times kept insisting that this matter will be decided by the next parliament and never expressed its enthusiasm for the restoration of these judges. These two issues thus may be one of the first ones to crop up in the coming weeks.

 

These differences, coupled with others, may reach a stage where the PML-N decides to sit in the opposition and the MQM and the PML-Q join a coalition led by the PPP; this would be most ironical. It is a different matter that such a move may not be so popular with the party workers. But this is the fruit of democracy: variety and disorder and dispensing sort of equality to equals and unequals alike which a military mind for some reason fails to comprehend.

       

Attorney General Goofs Up Once Again

(New York, February 15, 2008) – In an audio recording obtained by Human Rights Watch (http://hrw.org/audio/2008/urdu/pakistan0208.htm), Pakistan’s Attorney General Malik Qayyum stated that upcoming parliamentary elections will be “massively rigged,” Human Rights Watch said today.

In the recording, Qayyum appears to be advising an unidentified person on what political party the person should approach to become a candidate in the upcoming parliamentary election, now scheduled for February 18, 2008.

Human Rights Watch said that the recording was made during a phone interview with a member of the media on November 21, 2007. Qayyum, while still on the phone interview, took a call on another telephone and his side of that conversation was recorded. The recording was made the day after Pakistan’s Election Commission announced the schedule for polls. The election was originally planned for January 8 but was postponed after the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto. Another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, returned to Pakistan on November 25. An English translation of the recording, which is in Urdu and Punjabi, follows:

“Leave Nawaz Sharif (PAUSE)…. I think Nawaz Sharif will not take part in the election (PAUSE)…. If he does take part, he will be in trouble. If Benazir takes part she too will be in trouble (PAUSE)…. They will massively rig to get their own people to win. If you can get a ticket from these guys, take it (PAUSE)…. If Nawaz Sharif does not return himself, then Nawaz Sharif has some advantage. If he comes himself, even if after the elections rather than before (PAUSE)…. Yes….”

Fears of rigging have been a major issue in the current election campaign. Human Rights Watch said that since the official election period commenced in November 2007, there have been numerous allegations of irregularities, including arrests and harassment of opposition candidates and party members. There are also allegations that state resources, administration and state machinery are being used to the advantage of candidates backed by President Pervez Musharraf. (http://hrw.org/english/docs/2008/02/11/pakist18034.htm).

Background

Malik Qayyum is a former judge who resigned from the bench in 2001 amid charges of misconduct. On April 15, 1999, a two-judge panel of the Lahore High Court headed by Qayyum convicted Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Ali Zardari in a corruption case. They were sentenced to five years in prison, fined US$8.6 million dollars each, disqualified as members of parliament for five years, and forced to forfeit their property. The impending verdict led Bhutto to go into exile in March 1999.

In February 2001, the Sunday Times, a British newspaper, published a report based on transcripts of 32 audio tapes, which revealed that Qayyum convicted Bhutto and Zardari for political reasons. The transcripts of the recordings reproduced by the newspaper showed that Qayyum asked then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s anti-corruption chief, Saifur Rehman, for advice on the sentence: “Now you tell me how much punishment do you want me to give her?”

In April 2001, on the basis of this evidence, a seven-member bench of Pakistan’s Supreme Court upheld an appeal by the couple, overturning the conviction. In its ruling, the Supreme Court contended that Qayyum had been politically motivated in handing down the sentence. Faced with a trial for professional misconduct before Pakistan’s Supreme Judicial Council, the constitutional body authorized to impeach senior judges, Qayyum opted to resign his post in June 2001.

A close associate of Musharraf, Qayyum was appointed as the lead counsel on behalf of Pakistan’s federal government in the presidential reference against Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, instituted after Chaudhry was first illegally deposed by Musharraf on March 9, 2007. A full bench of Pakistan’s Supreme Court reinstated Chief Justice Chaudhry on July 20, 2007.

Qayyum was appointed attorney general of Pakistan by Musharraf in August 2007.

To download the audio recording of Pakistan’s Attorney General Malik Qayyum discussing election rigging (in Urdu with English transcript), please visit:

http://hrw.org/audio/2008/urdu/pakistan0208.htm

For more of Human Rights Watch’s work on Pakistan, please visit:

http://hrw.org/pakistan

For more information, please contact:

In London, Brad Adams (English): +44-20-7713-2767; or +44-790-872-8333 (mobile)

In Washington, DC, Tom Malinowski (English): +1-202-612-4358; or +1-202-309-3551 (mobile)

Lack Luster Elections

The February 18 elections to the 272 national assembly seats, and for the four provincial assemblies, are perhaps the most lack luster in the country’s history. The people remain uncertain as to whether the elections would be conducted in a free and a fair manner although everyone, including the observers, remain clueless as to how they would be rigged. The fear of suicidal attacks has virtually eliminated the fun out of the whole exercise as people are reluctant to attend public meetings and rallies and perhaps workers are sometimes dragged to these meetings against the wishes of their loved ones. Benazir Bhutto’s assassination has removed the colorful factor out of the politics, and the current boycott by Jamaati Islami, Imran Khan and some of the Baloch nationalist parties has removed whatever was left of the election campaign.

Pakistan never had it so bad. A foreign friend who lived in Pakistan for a number of years and recently returned for a couple of days was shocked to hear one person after another expressing doubts about the viability of the State. She loves Pakistan and could not believe that the people of this country themselves are losing hope and so fast.

It is difficult to tell as to who should be blamed for this malaise. The easiest person who comes to one’s mind in this respect is President Musharraf who if for no other reason should take most of the responsibility as he has been in power for more than eight years now. The military should also be answerable as it supported him to remain in power. The Western powers led by President Bush gave him whole hearted support and what the country has ended up with is a big mess on its hands. The politicians lack public support and corruption amongst them is now taken for granted; in other words, there is hardly an ideal left in their midst. They should may be stick to the idiom that vote for the man who promises least. At least he will be the least disappointing.

It should not then be surprising that 38% percent of the Pakistanis at present want to emigrate, according to a recent Gallup survey. This is the number of people who would like to permanently settle abroad, as opposed to a whopping 62% who would at least like to work abroad. One guy from Multan went to the extent of selling his wife for Rs 100,000 to pay a recruiting agent to send him to Saudi Arabia. This scenario is hardly reflective of an economy where the growth rate is stated to be one of the highest in Asia.

Long queues can be witnessed of people waiting to get a sack of flour, or a tin of cooking oil. Unabated load shedding is at its peak, and the inflation has virtually crushed the common man, particularly the more than 60% percent of the populace that is surviving on less than two dollars a day. This is hardly a situation where the PML (Pakistan Muslim League – Q), led by Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, Mushahid Hussain and Chaudhry Pervez Elahi can take pride as this party is a creation of General Musharraf and ruled the country after the 2002 elections. The artificial boom created by more than nine billion dollars pouring into the economy following 9/11 has benefited only a small fraction, and the remaining millions continue to be unemployed and poverty stricken.

The year 2007 was almost a nightmare for the people. The year started with the Islamic fundamentalists taking over a Children’s Library in Islamabad; this was followed by moral policing by the students of the Lal Masjid in Islamabad which eventually culminated in a bloody crackdown by the military that resulted in many casualties on both sides. This incident shook the country and many blamed President Musharraf and his intelligence agencies for letting the fundamentalists reach up to such a state of affairs. These madressah students were holded up in sort of a fortress and obviously such a structure was not built in less than a few years; there was no way that this, coupled with the possession of massive arms, could have been accomplished in the capital without the cooperation of the law enforcing authorities.

PML-Q’s Chaudhary Shujaat was in the center of this crisis, just like he was when he was handling President Musharraf’s parleys with the Balochi leader, Akbar Bugti, who subsequently was killed by the military in inexplicable circumstances. The fate of the Lal Masjid students, and their religious leaders, was no different which also went to show the impotency of the PML-Q leaders. Just last week, he met brother of the slain Lal Masjid leader to solicit his support for the elections; the brother who remains imprisoned obviously declined which should not have been surprising considering that his brother and other close members of his family were killed in the July 2007 military operation.

The PPP (Pakistan People’s Party) now led by Benazir Bhutto’s husband, Asif Ali Zardari, is already acting as it has come to power. Its leaders have started day dreaming about the ministries they would be occupying and the parasites akin to frogs who come out in the rainy season have started to flock its indoor meetings. Sindh, with 61 seats to the national assembly, is its bastion which has been the case since the Party’s inception in 1967. The PPP would have won most of the seats from the interior of Sindh even if Benazir Bhutto had not been assassinated. However, the murder has sealed the fate of its opponents and the PPP is likely to win comfortably, except for the urban seats, mostly based in Karachi and Hyderabad where the MQM, representing the Mohajirs (Migrants from India at the time of partition) will sweep the polls. The Mohajirs remain the mainstay of Musharraf’s support which is sad because it is a reflection of the country being divided on clear ethnic lines; the Sindhis supporting the Bhuttos and the Mohajirs behind the President as his family migrated from Delhi.

There are only two Hindu dominated districts in the whole of Pakistan: Umerkot and Tharparkar, both in Sindh, and ironically PPP may lose a few seats in these very seats, despite being quite popular amongst the minority communities for standing up against the religious forces in the past. This may have less to do with the PPP’s popularity and more to do with the hold of the feudals in these regions.

The former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, and his brother Shahbaz Sharif who was the chief minister of the important province of the Punjab, are back from their exile. It would now be interesting to see their impact on the Punjab polity which has traditionally been their stronghold, along with the Hazara belt of the Frontier Province. One of the reasons that this election is hard to predict is because it will remain indistinguishable until the announcement of the elections as to who will cut into whose votes: the policies of the PPP and Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N have now become impossible to differentiate and the difference only lies in the personalities and their ethnic backgrounds. So it is possible that they may cut into each other’s vote banks depending upon the candidates in each constituency; the other situation is where the sympathy wave following Benazir’s assassination may sweep PML-N off its feet or the Punjabi factor associated with the Nawaz Sharif leadership may cut into the sympathy wave.

Majority of the anti PPP and anti Nawaz Sharif votes are likely to go to the PML-Q. There are hardly any Musharraf supporters in the Punjab and the Frontier Province which can be gauged by the fact that not a single election poster in the whole country is using his photograph. This is odd as otherwise it was the norm in the earlier days and even during the 2002 elections.

The major religious party, Jamati Islami, is boycotting the elections mainly on the issue of showing solidarity with the sacked 60 judges of the superior courts. Most of its voters are quite disciplined and thus unlikely to vote; the other religious groupings hardly matter, except for Fazlur Rehman’s JUI (Jamati Ulamai Islam) which is the main supporter of Taliban in the country and has pockets of support in the Frontier and Balochistan provinces. Its leader remained the Frontier chief minister for the past five years but the alliance of the religious parties , the MMA (Muttahida Majlise Amal) has practically split over the issue of participating in the elections and this is going to reflect quite badly on the JUI’s standing in the polls.

The elections are stated to be costing the country more than 200 billion rupees, according to one paper’s report. This is an expensive amount for a country where people are finding it hard to even afford a roti. And the sad and the ironic part is that these elections, despite so many expectations and bonhomie, are not going to change anything. The real power will remain in the hands of the forces who have retained it for most of the past 60 years and this is the nation’s dilemma!